Global trade decisions can have consequences far beyond the transport and cost of products. For producers, changes in tariffs, trade bans and wars, geopolitical conflicts, climate-related supply chain disruptions, and sudden regulatory changes can all put pressure on margins and influence how they respond.
The effects do not stop at the farm. The path the producer takes in response to economic pressure can have implications for workers, communities, and human rights across the supply chain. These issues were at the center of the recent AGRAYA SUMMIT 2026 webinar, “Trade shocks and human rights risks: How global trade decisions impact producers on the ground”, hosted by Agraya Senior Technical Expert Dr. Nolan Quiros.
Trade shocks caused by tariffs
Tariffs are not a new feature of agricultural trade. However, heightened geopolitical tensions have contributed to a period of significant volatility in global agricultural markets. Prior to 2025, agricultural tariffs ranged from 0% to 10%, whereas since February 2026, they have increased, reaching up to 40%. For producers, this translates into higher production costs and reduced profit margins.
Tariffs do not automatically result in production cuts or reductions in labor costs. Instead, producers can respond in four distinct ways, each carrying different implications and consequences.
- Reducing production lowers output directed at the tariff-imposing market, and, consequently, reduces demand for labor. The risks fall on workers – job and income losses, farm closures, and vulnerability in rural livelihoods where production is a major source of employment and economic activity.
- Absorbing the margin pressure means continuing production at lower margins. The strain is financial and it can also affect workers through reduced investment capability in safety training, equipment, and worker support.
- Cutting operating costs places greater emphasis on efficiency. When other costs are fixed or difficult to adjust in the short term, labor often becomes the most flexible cost, putting working hours, wage levels, and subcontracting arrangements under pressure.
- Diversifying markets allows producers to redirect sales toward alternative sources of demand, such as new export destinations or domestic markets, helping to maintain relatively stable employment levels.
The point is not to assume that a tariff will lead to a specific labor outcome. It is to understand which pathway the producer takes and whether that response creates risk for workers.
From trade exposure to workers risks
Three factors determine whether a trade shock translates into human rights risk. These factors are interdependent and should be considered together rather than in isolation.
- Trade exposure – The degree of dependence on a particular export relationship, including the share of sales concentrated in a single market and the availability of alternative markets.
- Margin pressure – The pressure on producers’ profitability resulting from higher costs, lower revenues, or limited ability to pass costs on to customers.
- Labor vulnerability – Reliance on workers who are more vulnerable, particularly migrant, seasonal, temporary, and subcontracted workers.
When these factors coincide, the potential for risk becomes significant. Workers’ risks increase if cost pressure reaches labor conditions.
The webinar highlighted a set of indicators worth monitoring. These include: Wages and deductions, working hours and work intensity, occupational health and safety, recruiting and subcontracting, and worker accommodation. Each corresponds to one of the pathways a producer may take, hence, they should be treated as a set rather than a checklist.
Making trade exposure actionable
The webinar presented a five-question approach to help assess tariff exposure across different industries and strengthen audit preparation: “Trade exposure, Economic pressure, Labor profile, Worker vulnerability, and Producer response.”
This approach helps focus on understanding the producer’s level of exposure, how much economic pressure it is facing, who may be most vulnerable within the workforce, and the producer’s response. Together, these questions provide a framework for screening and prioritizing potential labor and human rights risks.
Effects extend beyond the workplace
What happens when economic pressure persists? It can lead to contract pauses and cancellations, potentially reducing harvest volumes and incomes for smallholders.
The webinar also highlighted wider risks associated with lower investment and reduced spending on worker safety, which may increase the risk of informal work, unsafe conditions, and exploitation.
The discussion broadened from the workplace to communities that depend on agricultural production. If worker and producer incomes decline, rural households may become more vulnerable, potentially affecting access to stable housing, adequate nutrition, and goods. The pressure can also extend to access to healthcare, medicines, and other essential services, thereby undermining the well-being and resilience of farming systems.
Human and labor rights risks therefore cannot be considered only through the behavior of an individual producer. Understanding and addressing these risks requires a supply-chain-wide approach.
Q&A: Government measures and supply chain responses
The Q&A explored how government measures and supply chain responses can shape the risks discussed during the webinar. Due diligence laws and other government measures are changing how responsibility is shared across supply chains, with buyers increasingly playing a role in influencing producer practices. For certification and supply chain professionals, this makes it important to stay informed as the geopolitical and regulatory landscape continues to evolve.
The discussion also considered how these risks can be addressed in practice. Closer collaboration between buyers and producers was highlighted as one approach, including supply chain contracts that go beyond price and product quality to information sharing and capacity-building. While stronger buyer-producer relationships cannot eliminate every human rights risk, they can help identify risks earlier and support more effective responses.
Watch the webinar recording to hear the full exchange.
Continuing the discussion at the AGRAYA SUMMIT 2026
This webinar served as a starting point for deeper conversations at the AGRAYA SUMMIT 2026 in Bologna, Italy, on 27–29 October. The SUMMIT will explore related questions, including how supply chain agreements can help reduce these risks and how the growing integration of social and environmental requirements into regulation is changing producers’ exposure and responsibilities.
Discover the full agenda and secure your tickets.
Related links
- Learn more about AGRAYA SUMMIT 2026
- Join us at SUMMIT 2026 to personally meet Agraya’s technical experts at the Solution Hub
- Discover more about the objectives, value, and networking opportunities that await you at the event
